Countries that are in danger of economic collapse often save themselves by provoking a major war. Aggressive threats of the Trump administration in terms of tariffs and international trade, as well as their territorial demands related mainly to natural resources, are heading in this direction. I see that social media are beginning to notice this topic, so I will include here a few details that have recently appeared in US-Canada relations. As you know, Canada responded with its own tariffs to the US tariffs, which were assessed as an attempt to collapse the Canadian economy in order to take over Canada as the 51st state of the USA. As a pretext for his demands, Trump listed the issues of securing the US border, allegedly unfair tariffs in international trade, and allegedly unequal spending on NATO.
1. Securing our Borders
Is Canada responsible for securing the US border or only for securing its own border? It seems that the US should be responsible for securing their border. Yes, we can be nice and we can help them secure their border to prevent unwanted people and unwanted products from entering their territory. But do we have to, if they are not nice to us, if they are trying to destroy our economy? I don’t think so. Legally, it is not our obligation.
2. Tariffs
We are talking about tariffs on international trade that is being conducted under existing international laws and trade agreements signed by both Canada and the US. This is exactly what the World Trade Organization (WTO) is designed to deal with. Countries register their trade agreements with the WTO. This is also where countries file their complaints and seek international trade dispute resolutions. In cases of disagreements or unfair practices, WTO provides assistance with trade disputes in three different forms: negotiation, mediation, and arbitration. Both Canada and the US are members of the WTO.
My questions:
A. Did the US government file a complaint with the WTO before declaring a tariff war against Canada as a result of allegedly unfair practices? Did the WTO have a chance to look at our trade agreements and facilitate proper negotiations, mediation, and arbitration in this case?
B. Did Canada file a complaint with the WTO about the allegedly unfair tariffs implemented by the Trump administration? Did the WTO have a chance to resolve this conflict, or have we jumped into the fist fighting bypassing the WTO altogether?
If both countries did not go to the WTO first and did not try to resolve this dispute according to their obligations as WTO members, then international trade is not causing the aggressive increases in US tariffs and Canadian aggressive response. Trade is only used as a pretext. Something else must be the real reason.
3. NATO
Trump claims that the US is bearing the cost of defending Canada. He is referring to the early warning radar and other detection installations located in northern Canada. The shortest way for Russian, Chinese and Iranian ballistic missiles to reach the territory of mainland USA is through the Arctic. Early warning installations need to be placed in the Arctic Circle in order to give the US air defences enough time to shoot enemy missiles down before they cross the Canada-US border. This means that the destroyed enemy missiles (including their radioactive and highly toxic loads) will fall on Canada’s territory. They will cause direct damage. They will contaminate our soil, our communities, our farms, our water, and our air. I would not call it “defending Canada”. I would actually charge the US army a substantial rent for installing their early warning equipment on our soil. We don’t owe them, they owe us.
4. Forcing Offshored American Businesses to Return Home
These businesses and technologies were offshored by the American investors, not by Canadians or Europeans. Trump should go after their money first. I understand his motivation and I don’t blame him for his desire to bring American companies home where they will contribute to the American economy, pay American taxes, create American jobs. But this plan goes far beyond that. It will also encourage Canadian companies exporting their products and services to the US, to move South in order to avoid unfairly high tariffs. This constitutes stealing. It is like “We are not forcing you to get vaccinated but if you don’t, you will lose your job”. It is called coercion.
5. Ukraine
Ending the war in Ukraine will allow the US to focus its military spending and planning on confrontation with China. China poses the largest threat (both economically and militarily) to the US and the Western World. Temporary rapprochement between the US and Russia may serve as an attempt to secure Russia’s neutrality during the future Sino-American conflict. I don’t see any warranties in such calculations. Russians know that this would only be a temporary arrangement. As soon as China is defeated, they would become the next target. No-brainer here.
6. Conclusions
It is obvious that Trump is deliberately “stirring the pot”. The question is why, for what end?
A few answers to this question are possible:
- One, he is trying to collapse Canada economically in order to annex it politically. Why? Canada controls a vast territory, rich natural resources (including fresh water), and a long continental shelf (read: Exclusive Economic Zone) in the Arctic, with large deposits of crude oil and other minerals. For the same reason Trump is eyeing Greenland.
- Two, to militarize the Arctic in preparation for a military conflict with China, Russia, and possibly Iran.
- Three, all of this ‘stirring the pot’ game is a deception and diversion of public and media attention away from something else, something like the Middle East conflict. Something like the ethnic cleansing of Palestine and genocide of the Palestinians.
- Four, continuation of the transfer of wealth. It began with the Covid-19 and the lockdowns. Small businesses could not afford to survive it. Big money moved in and took over their sustainable assets and sources of profit. The wealth has moved to the super-wealthy investors and large corporations. The tariff war will have the same effect. This time, it is done on the scale of regions, countries, and geopolitical blocks such as the European Union. It is done in a variety of ways – differently for the Palestinians and the Ukrainians, differently for Canada and Greenland, and differently for Panama.
7. Israel
Trump appears to be a strong supporter of Israel. This is a controversial topic. On one hand, he tries to end the war in Ukraine in order to “stop the killing” of people. On the other hand, he supports Israel that is engaged in ethnic cleansing of Palestine and genocide of its Palestinian residents. It is happening contrary to over 100 UN resolutions calling for the right of the Palestinians to self-determination and right of the Palestinian refugees to return to their homes, orchards, and their country. It is happening in blatant contravention of existing treaties and applicable laws. You cannot have it both ways and this proves that something else is at play here.
Some of the Republican analysts speculate that Trump is nice to Israel because he had made enough enemies already with his executive orders dismantling the deep state structures and policies. Adding Israel and Israeli Lobby to this mix could be too difficult to overcome and this would destroy his ability to achieve his domestic policy goals. After these policies are implemented and related goals reached, then, (they say), will be the right time to confront Israel. Especially that Trump has only one term in office and he does not have to worry about his re-election. I cannot prove that this is the case but it is one of logical and likely possibilities. So far, in both Ukraine and Palestine, Trump seems to go after the natural resources of these countries – this priority is already clearly visible.
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